Hand Review #2 2020/03/07 - AJo
Single-day €20 tournament.
Starting stack is 30.000, the levels are 15 minutes.
Early in the tournament, the blinds are 300/600 no ante.
It's folded to me in the HJ, I have AcJd and I raise to 2.000
Our villain for this hand calls from the SB. Everyone else folds.
We both have a stack of around 35.000.
Board: Jh Th 6c
I bet 1.500.
I decide to go for a small bet, it's a very drawy board and a lot of bad cards can come for me.
I probably do have the best hand at the moment though!
So should villain call here? Let's look at his pot odds.
With my bet sizing, villain needs 24% equity to continue.
If he has an open-ended straight draw, he has around 17% equity or 32% if I don't bet on the turn.
If he has a flush draw, he has around 19% equity or 34% if I don't bet on the turn.
Both draws also have some good implied odds, I think villain can continue with both of them.
Board: Jh Th 6c Qd
I bet 3500.
Not a great card for me, an overcard to my pair of jacks and some straight draws complete.
Since villain checked I think it's less likely he has the straight. A lot of people will donk bet here with such a strong hand, which is a huge mistake unless you're playing against someone who calls way too much.
A better player might just check the straight, so it's still very possible he has one.
I still think my hand is too strong to just check back here.
There are still a ton of draws out there, it's very possible my hand is still good but may no longer be good if a bad river card comes.
Another advantage of betting here is that it makes it more likely villain will check to me on the river, hoping for a 3rd bet from me and then I can just check behind.
I chose a slightly larger bet size here since I don't want to make my hand look too weak.
I don't want to bet bigger either since my goal is to get called by worse hands.
If I go for a smaller bet here, villain might just realize I have second pair now and attempt to steal the pot from me.
I would hate facing a raise here on the turn or a large donk bet on the river.
Board: Jh Th 6c Qd Js
I bet 4.000.
I show my trips, villain mucks and I take down the pot.
So on the turn, my plan was to check behind on almost every river card.
If one of the draws complete, I'm hoping villain checks and I get to check behind.
If something like a 3c comes, there really aren't too many hands I can get value from anymore and I would still hate getting raised.
The Jd changes things though.
There are now two jacks on the board, making it less likely that I have one.
I'm now also beating a queen and two pair.
I don't think villain's hand is too strong here so I go for a small bet hoping for another call.
If I get raised, I'm throwing my hand away.
After the hand villain told me he had Ts9s.
Villain's call on the flop is just fine, he has 26% equity and might very well have the best hand with his 2nd pair against my cbet.
The turn is actually a difficult decision for villain.
I would've bet again with a straight or flush draw, which villain is still ahead of.
But he now only has 3rd pair and I could easily have a Q, J or even a better T.
With my half-pot bet, he needs 25% equity to continue and he only has 20% equity now.
He might still have implied odds to continue, but it's often very risky to rely on those.
The river is another hard decision for villain.
There's 15.100 in the pot already and I only bet 4.000.
If he thinks he will win more than 21% of the time, he should call.
Am I bluffing often enough here to make this call? Probably not.